The Economics and Geopolitics of the 'Golden Dome'
Missile Defense in a North American Context
By Jay Heisler
When President Trump announced that the US was pursuing an “Iron Dome for America,” or as POTUS named it, the “Golden Dome,” there was a great deal of interest in the idea in Canada.
After Trump signed an executive order on January 27, the US think tank circuit seized upon the concept to see whether it was feasible. These were read with great interest by Canadian policymakers, who are unlikely to commission such reports from Canadian think tanks due to the current political climate with the US.
The Hudson Institute’s Rebecca L. Heinrichs noted that this plan would involve the following technologies and advancement of the following sectors of American industry:
Hypersonic and ballistic tracking space sensor layers
Proliferated space-based interceptors
A proliferated warfighter space architecture
Capabilities to defeat salvos prior to launch
Non-kinetic missile defense capabilities
Underlayer and terminal-phase intercept capabilities
Meanwhile, Michael E. O’Hanlon with Brookings, explained that a total “Iron Dome” matching the capabilities of Israel’s “Iron Dome,” but on US soil, would likely cost up to 500 billion USD and that so far SECDEF Hegseth has only earmarked 50 billion USD a year to this project. Meaning it is unlikely that a future “Iron Dome for America” would be able to protect the entire American homeland and instead would likely focus on just protecting key priority cities.
However, US drone industry experts are skeptical about the quality of service offered by any “Iron Dome for America.”
“The current “iron dome” system is exorbitantly expensive and has limitations,” an industry insider told us under condition of anonymity. “Barrages of lower cost systems used daily in theaters like Ukraine can overwhelm and defeat targets in the protection bubble of such a system.”
“There needs to be a fusion of missile defense and counter UAS systems with kinetic defeat options protecting cities and critical infrastructure,” he added. “Iron dome is an antiquated and bloated cow that doesn’t remotely achieve parity in cost of the cheaper systems it means to defend against.”
He concluded by saying: “War is also economic, and you’ll see that the cost per missile on the iron dome system is so overly expensive that a country under persistent threat would be bankrupted trying to maintain defense in even a moderately kinetic environment.”
Speaking to a senior public servant in national security in Canada, I learned that the Canadian take is that the so-called “Golden Dome” is largely an endless work in progress, or in the Canadian public servant’s words, “aspirational.” However, Canadian policymakers have an interest in the idea as they see it as potentially extending to their own shared defense.
Within Chatham House Rules, I can say that Canadian policymakers have shared that a future “Iron Dome for America” project is likely to be so reliant on Canadian soil for its success that it is likely to include Canadian cities under its protection as well. However, as with US soil, it may just be some Canadian cities and not all that have this protection extended to them.
So, perhaps, the recent downturn in relations between the US and Canada could be reversed if there is cooperation over the “Golden Dome” and the renewed pursuit of cooperation on mutual defense.
Additional Reading
Brewster, Murray. 2025. “Canada Looking to Help Develop Sensors for “Golden Dome”; Missile Defence, U.S. General Tells Conference.” CBC News, March 6, 2025. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/golden-dome-norad-1.7475989.
Heinrichs, Rebeccah. 2025. “Key Takeaways: President Trump’s Iron Dome for America | Hudson Institute.” The Hudson Institute. March 25, 2025. https://www.hudson.org/missile-defense/key-takeaways-president-trump-iron-dome-america-rebeccah-heinrichs.
Ruhe, Jonathan. 2025. “US-Israel Defense Collaboration Is Essential for Trump’s Golden Dome.” Text. The Hill (blog). April 5, 2025. https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/5232280-us-israel-defense-collaboration-is-essential-for-trumps-golden-dome/.
O’Hanlon, Michael. n.d. “An Iron Dome for America?” Brookings. Accessed April 11, 2025. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/an-iron-dome-for-america/.